Sometimes you come across an comment that you promise yourself you’ll check out… and never do.
In Guardian article The Great Storm of 26 November 1703, I came across the following by Iapogus, which is a response to Warmists DrMaybe and Zepp.
@ DrMaybe – I do not dispute that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. The question is whether an increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration from 0.028% to 0.038% or even 0.058% can ever be significant, when you consider that the relationship between CO2 and the resultant radiative forcing is not linear. The reality is that it is logarithmic relationship, more precisely it is governed by Beer-Lamberts Law. (Think the law of diminishing returns in layman’s terms). Hence a doubling of CO2 from 100 to 200ppm will have a noticeable effect, but the doubling of CO2 from 200 to 400 will be insignificant because most of the IR radiation has been already bounced back by the 200 ppm of CO2 molecules, (well actually most has been bounced by water vapour molecules, as the CO2 is a very minor player even at 200ppm). This is accepted by all the IPCC endorsed climate models, and it is why they all have to have the positive feedback (from increased water vapour & clouds) to actually project warming. (And of course they all assume that increased water vapour and clouds is a positive feedback when it most likely isn’t – see Dr Roy Spencer’s recent papers for more details. There’s a good summary of all this here: http://notrickszone.com/2010/11/20/papers-show-low-co2-climate-sensitivity/
But don’t take my word for it – climatologists like Dr. Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, Judith Curry, and Dr Brandt, are now jumping ship for these very reasons – http://notrickszone.com/2010/11/20/climate-models-not-worth-the-paper-theyre-printed-on/
Put simply the CO2 AGW hypothesis is junk science, and the warming we saw in the 1980s and 1990s was due to long term ocean cycles (and possibly solar-magnetic). And the reality is that both the Pacific and Atlantic are now entering their cooling phases, hence we are getting cold winters again, just like we did in the late 70s and early 80s.
The answer is to your last question is simple. Test the models’ predictions / projections against real world observations (and use the satellite data not the Hadcrut/GISS datasets which have been totally corrupted by data homogenisation, adjustments and UHI). As far as I know not one climate model predicted the lack of warming in the 21st century. As time goes on they will get further and further from the mark. The question is how many more poor summers and cold winters will it take before the gullible journalists and stupid politicians admit they have have been totally duped by the pseudo scientists and eco-activists in WWF and Greenpeace.
Dr Roy Spencer’s paper: http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Spencer-Braswell-JGR-2010.pdf
Bob Tisdale’s post in WUWT: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/19/integrating-enso-multidecadal-changes-in-sea-surface-temperature/
Iapogus made a couple of corrections which I have edited in.Comments on that article are closed.
Now I have to go clear some more out of my study 🙂